Probability and Odds
Applying odds at the poker table is essential to making good poker decisions. Some
experienced players can do this simply by their excellent feel and judgment for the
game, but most of us need to rely on mathematics to help guide us with close
decisions. Players who understand how to apply odds in a poker game will have a
significant advantage over most of their opponents.
Let's look at an example to demonstrate how to apply odds to make good poker
decisions. You are playing in a $1-$2 game and are seated on the button. You hold
K♥ T♥
and the board shows 9♥ 2 ♣ 4 ♦ A♥ . An opponent bets $2 for a total pot of
$10. To simplify the example, we assume your opponent is betting a pair of aces
but will fold if another heart comes on the river. Should you call to try and improve
to a flush?
We will show later that the odds against improving to a flush are 4 to 1.
In other words, you will improve to a flush once every five tries. If you played this hand five
times, you should expect to lose $2 four times and win $10; once for a total profit of
$2; therefore, calling has a positive expectation. What if the pot is only $7? In this
case, you would expect to lose $2.00 four times and win $7 once for a loss of $1, so
you should fold.
To better understand this process, we begin the chapter with some definitions and
then discuss how to calculate various odds and probabilities for the most typical
situations in Hold'em. The actual calculation however is not as important as how you apply
odds to make better decisions, so we will discuss this process in detail.
NEXT...Definitions
